Novel recombinant SARS-CoV-2 lineage detected through genomic surveillance in Wales, UK.

Recombination, the process whereby a segment of genetic material from one genome is inserted into another, producing a new chimeric genome, is an important evolutionary mechanism frequently observed in coronaviruses. The risks posed by recombination include the shuffling of advantageous mutations that may increase transmissibility, severity or vaccine escape. We present a genomic and epidemiological description of a new recombinant lineage of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2), XR, first identified in Wales. The Pathogen Genomics Unit (Public Health Wales, UK) sequences positive SARS-CoV-2 PCR tests using the ARTIC SARS-CoV-2 sequencing protocol. Recombinants were detected using an in-house pipeline and the epidemiological data analysed in R. Nosocomial cases were defined as those with samples taken after >7 days in hospital. Between February and March 2022, we identified 78 samples with highly similar genomes, comprising a BA.1-like 5' end, a BA.2-like 3' end and a BA.2-like spike protein. This signature is consistent with recombination and was defined as XR by Pangolin (PANGO v1.8). A total of 50 % of cases had a sample collected whilst in hospital and the first three cases were immunocompromised patients. The patient median age was 58 years (range: 4-95 years) and most of the patients were fully vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2 (74 % third dose/booster). Three patients died within 28 days of their sample collection date, one of whom had COVID-19 listed amongst ICD10 (International Classification of Diseases 10) coded causes of death. Our integrated system enabled real-time monitoring of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 for early detection, in order to rapidly risk assess and respond. This work highlights the importance of setting-based surveillance of recombinant SARS-CoV-2, as well as the need to monitor immunocompromised populations through repeat testing and sequencing.

Epidemiological analysis of the first 1000 cases of SARS-CoV-2 lineage BA.1 (B.1.1.529, Omicron) compared with co-circulating Delta in Wales, UK.

BACKGROUND: The Omicron (lineage B.1.1.529) variant of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) was first reported in Wales, UK, on 3 December 2021. The aim of the study was to describe the first 1000 cases of the Omicron variant by demographic, vaccination status, travel and severe outcome status and compare this to contemporaneous cases of the Delta variant. METHODS: Testing, typing and contact tracing data were collected by Public Health Wales and analysis undertaken by the Communicable Disease Surveillance Centre (CDSC). Risk ratios for demographic factors and symptoms were calculated comparing Omicron cases to Delta cases identified over the same time period. RESULTS: By 14 December 2021, 1000 cases of the Omicron variant had been identified in Wales. Of the first 1000, just 3% of cases had a prior history of travel revealing rapid community transmission. A higher proportion of Omicron cases were identified in individuals aged 20-39, and most cases were double vaccinated (65.9%) or boosted (15.7%). Age-adjusted analysis also revealed that Omicron cases were less likely to be hospitalised (0.4%) or report symptoms (60.8%). Specifically a significant reduction was observed in the proportion of Omicron cases reporting anosmia (8.9%). CONCLUSION: Key findings include a lower risk of anosmia and a reduced risk of hospitalisation in the first 1000 Omicron cases compared with co-circulating Delta cases. We also identify that existing measures for travel restrictions to control importations of new variants identified outside the United Kingdom did not prevent the rapid ingress of Omicron within Wales.

Emergence of immune escape at dominant SARS-CoV-2 killer T cell epitope.

We studied the prevalent cytotoxic CD8 T cell response mounted against severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) Spike glycoprotein269-277 epitope (sequence YLQPRTFLL) via the most frequent human leukocyte antigen (HLA) class I worldwide, HLA A∗02. The Spike P272L mutation that has arisen in at least 112 different SARS-CoV-2 lineages to date, including in lineages classified as "variants of concern," was not recognized by the large CD8 T cell response seen across cohorts of HLA A∗02+ convalescent patients and individuals vaccinated against SARS-CoV-2, despite these responses comprising of over 175 different individual T cell receptors. Viral escape at prevalent T cell epitopes restricted by high frequency HLAs may be particularly problematic when vaccine immunity is focused on a single protein such as SARS-CoV-2 Spike, providing a strong argument for inclusion of multiple viral proteins in next generation vaccines and highlighting the need for monitoring T cell escape in new SARS-CoV-2 variants.

Phylogenetic and phylodynamic approaches to understanding and combating the early SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

Determining the transmissibility, prevalence and patterns of movement of severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) infections is central to our understanding of the impact of the pandemic and to the design of effective control strategies. Phylogenies (evolutionary trees) have provided key insights into the international spread of SARS-CoV-2 and enabled investigation of individual outbreaks and transmission chains in specific settings. Phylodynamic approaches combine evolutionary, demographic and epidemiological concepts and have helped track virus genetic changes, identify emerging variants and inform public health strategy. Here, we review and synthesize studies that illustrate how phylogenetic and phylodynamic techniques were applied during the first year of the pandemic, and summarize their contributions to our understanding of SARS-CoV-2 transmission and control.

Future-proofing and maximizing the utility of metadata: The PHA4GE SARS-CoV-2 contextual data specification package.

BACKGROUND: The Public Health Alliance for Genomic Epidemiology (PHA4GE) (https://pha4ge.org) is a global coalition that is actively working to establish consensus standards, document and share best practices, improve the availability of critical bioinformatics tools and resources, and advocate for greater openness, interoperability, accessibility, and reproducibility in public health microbial bioinformatics. In the face of the current pandemic, PHA4GE has identified a need for a fit-for-purpose, open-source SARS-CoV-2 contextual data standard. RESULTS: As such, we have developed a SARS-CoV-2 contextual data specification package based on harmonizable, publicly available community standards. The specification can be implemented via a collection template, as well as an array of protocols and tools to support both the harmonization and submission of sequence data and contextual information to public biorepositories. CONCLUSIONS: Well-structured, rich contextual data add value, promote reuse, and enable aggregation and integration of disparate datasets. Adoption of the proposed standard and practices will better enable interoperability between datasets and systems, improve the consistency and utility of generated data, and ultimately facilitate novel insights and discoveries in SARS-CoV-2 and COVID-19. The package is now supported by the NCBI's BioSample database.

Generation and transmission of interlineage recombinants in the SARS-CoV-2 pandemic.

We present evidence for multiple independent origins of recombinant SARS-CoV-2 viruses sampled from late 2020 and early 2021 in the United Kingdom. Their genomes carry single-nucleotide polymorphisms and deletions that are characteristic of the B.1.1.7 variant of concern but lack the full complement of lineage-defining mutations. Instead, the remainder of their genomes share contiguous genetic variation with non-B.1.1.7 viruses circulating in the same geographic area at the same time as the recombinants. In four instances, there was evidence for onward transmission of a recombinant-origin virus, including one transmission cluster of 45 sequenced cases over the course of 2 months. The inferred genomic locations of recombination breakpoints suggest that every community-transmitted recombinant virus inherited its spike region from a B.1.1.7 parental virus, consistent with a transmission advantage for B.1.1.7's set of mutations.

CLIMB-COVID: continuous integration supporting decentralised sequencing for SARS-CoV-2 genomic surveillance.

In response to the ongoing SARS-CoV-2 pandemic in the UK, the COVID-19 Genomics UK (COG-UK) consortium was formed to rapidly sequence SARS-CoV-2 genomes as part of a national-scale genomic surveillance strategy. The network consists of universities, academic institutes, regional sequencing centres and the four UK Public Health Agencies. We describe the development and deployment of CLIMB-COVID, an encompassing digital infrastructure to address the challenge of collecting and integrating both genomic sequencing data and sample-associated metadata produced across the COG-UK network.

Monitoring SARS-CoV-2 in municipal wastewater to evaluate the success of lockdown measures for controlling COVID-19 in the UK.

SARS-CoV-2 and the resulting COVID-19 pandemic represents one of the greatest recent threats to human health, wellbeing and economic growth. Wastewater-based epidemiology (WBE) of human viruses can be a useful tool for population-scale monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 prevalence and epidemiology to help prevent further spread of the disease, particularly within urban centres. Here, we present a longitudinal analysis (March-July 2020) of SARS-CoV-2 RNA prevalence in sewage across six major urban centres in the UK (total population equivalent 3 million) by q(RT-)PCR and viral genome sequencing. Our results demonstrate that levels of SARS-CoV-2 RNA generally correlated with the abundance of clinical cases recorded within the community in large urban centres, with a marked decline in SARS-CoV-2 RNA abundance following the implementation of lockdown measures. The strength of this association was weaker in areas with lower confirmed COVID-19 case numbers. Further, sequence analysis of SARS-CoV-2 from wastewater suggested that multiple genetically distinct clusters were co-circulating in the local populations covered by our sample sites, and that the genetic variants observed in wastewater reflected similar SNPs observed in contemporaneous samples from cases tested in clinical diagnostic laboratories. We demonstrate how WBE can be used for both community-level detection and tracking of SARS-CoV-2 and other virus' prevalence, and can inform public health policy decisions. Although, greater understanding of the factors that affect SARS-CoV-2 RNA concentration in wastewater are needed for the full integration of WBE data into outbreak surveillance. In conclusion, our results lend support to the use of routine WBE for monitoring of SARS-CoV-2 and other human pathogenic viruses circulating in the population and assessment of the effectiveness of disease control measures.

SARS-CoV-2 within-host diversity and transmission.

Extensive global sampling and sequencing of the pandemic virus severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) have enabled researchers to monitor its spread and to identify concerning new variants. Two important determinants of variant spread are how frequently they arise within individuals and how likely they are to be transmitted. To characterize within-host diversity and transmission, we deep-sequenced 1313 clinical samples from the United Kingdom. SARS-CoV-2 infections are characterized by low levels of within-host diversity when viral loads are high and by a narrow bottleneck at transmission. Most variants are either lost or occasionally fixed at the point of transmission, with minimal persistence of shared diversity, patterns that are readily observable on the phylogenetic tree. Our results suggest that transmission-enhancing and/or immune-escape SARS-CoV-2 variants are likely to arise infrequently but could spread rapidly if successfully transmitted.

Evaluating the Effects of SARS-CoV-2 Spike Mutation D614G on Transmissibility and Pathogenicity.

Global dispersal and increasing frequency of the SARS-CoV-2 spike protein variant D614G are suggestive of a selective advantage but may also be due to a random founder effect. We investigate the hypothesis for positive selection of spike D614G in the United Kingdom using more than 25,000 whole genome SARS-CoV-2 sequences. Despite the availability of a large dataset, well represented by both spike 614 variants, not all approaches showed a conclusive signal of positive selection. Population genetic analysis indicates that 614G increases in frequency relative to 614D in a manner consistent with a selective advantage. We do not find any indication that patients infected with the spike 614G variant have higher COVID-19 mortality or clinical severity, but 614G is associated with higher viral load and younger age of patients. Significant differences in growth and size of 614G phylogenetic clusters indicate a need for continued study of this variant.

Establishment and lineage dynamics of the SARS-CoV-2 epidemic in the UK.

The United Kingdom's COVID-19 epidemic during early 2020 was one of world's largest and was unusually well represented by virus genomic sampling. We determined the fine-scale genetic lineage structure of this epidemic through analysis of 50,887 severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2) genomes, including 26,181 from the UK sampled throughout the country's first wave of infection. Using large-scale phylogenetic analyses combined with epidemiological and travel data, we quantified the size, spatiotemporal origins, and persistence of genetically distinct UK transmission lineages. Rapid fluctuations in virus importation rates resulted in >1000 lineages; those introduced prior to national lockdown tended to be larger and more dispersed. Lineage importation and regional lineage diversity declined after lockdown, whereas lineage elimination was size-dependent. We discuss the implications of our genetic perspective on transmission dynamics for COVID-19 epidemiology and control.

Understanding and responding to COVID-19 in Wales: protocol for a privacy-protecting data platform for enhanced epidemiology and evaluation of interventions.

INTRODUCTION: The emergence of the novel respiratory SARS-CoV-2 and subsequent COVID-19 pandemic have required rapid assimilation of population-level data to understand and control the spread of infection in the general and vulnerable populations. Rapid analyses are needed to inform policy development and target interventions to at-risk groups to prevent serious health outcomes. We aim to provide an accessible research platform to determine demographic, socioeconomic and clinical risk factors for infection, morbidity and mortality of COVID-19, to measure the impact of COVID-19 on healthcare utilisation and long-term health, and to enable the evaluation of natural experiments of policy interventions. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: Two privacy-protecting population-level cohorts have been created and derived from multisourced demographic and healthcare data. The C20 cohort consists of 3.2 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2020 with follow-up until 31 May 2020. The complete cohort dataset will be updated monthly with some individual datasets available daily. The C16 cohort consists of 3 million people in Wales on the 1 January 2016 with follow-up to 31 December 2019. C16 is designed as a counterfactual cohort to provide contextual comparative population data on disease, health service utilisation and mortality. Study outcomes will: (a) characterise the epidemiology of COVID-19, (b) assess socioeconomic and demographic influences on infection and outcomes, (c) measure the impact of COVID-19 on short -term and longer-term population outcomes and (d) undertake studies on the transmission and spatial spread of infection. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: The Secure Anonymised Information Linkage-independent Information Governance Review Panel has approved this study. The study findings will be presented to policy groups, public meetings, national and international conferences, and published in peer-reviewed journals.

Shedding of SARS-CoV-2 in feces and urine and its potential role in person-to-person transmission and the environment-based spread of COVID-19.

The recent detection of SARS-CoV-2 RNA in feces has led to speculation that it can be transmitted via the fecal-oral/ocular route. This review aims to critically evaluate the incidence of gastrointestinal (GI) symptoms, the quantity and infectivity of SARS-CoV-2 in feces and urine, and whether these pose an infection risk in sanitary settings, sewage networks, wastewater treatment plants, and the wider environment (e.g. rivers, lakes and marine waters). A review of 48 independent studies revealed that severe GI dysfunction is only evident in a small number of COVID-19 cases, with 11 ± 2% exhibiting diarrhea and 12 ± 3% exhibiting vomiting and nausea. In addition to these cases, SARS-CoV-2 RNA can be detected in feces from some asymptomatic, mildly- and pre-symptomatic individuals. Fecal shedding of the virus peaks in the symptomatic period and can persist for several weeks, but with declining abundances in the post-symptomatic phase. SARS-CoV-2 RNA is occasionally detected in urine, but reports in fecal samples are more frequent. The abundance of the virus genetic material in both urine (ca. 102-105 gc/ml) and feces (ca. 102-107 gc/ml) is much lower than in nasopharyngeal fluids (ca. 105-1011 gc/ml). There is strong evidence of multiplication of SARS-CoV-2 in the gut and infectious virus has occasionally been recovered from both urine and stool samples. The level and infectious capability of SARS-CoV-2 in vomit remain unknown. In comparison to enteric viruses transmitted via the fecal-oral route (e.g. norovirus, adenovirus), the likelihood of SARS-CoV-2 being transmitted via feces or urine appears much lower due to the lower relative amounts of virus present in feces/urine. The biggest risk of transmission will occur in clinical and care home settings where secondary handling of people and urine/fecal matter occurs. In addition, while SARS-CoV-2 RNA genetic material can be detected by in wastewater, this signal is greatly reduced by conventional treatment. Our analysis also suggests the likelihood of infection due to contact with sewage-contaminated water (e.g. swimming, surfing, angling) or food (e.g. salads, shellfish) is extremely low or negligible based on very low predicted abundances and limited environmental survival of SARS-CoV-2. These conclusions are corroborated by the fact that tens of million cases of COVID-19 have occurred globally, but exposure to feces or wastewater has never been implicated as a transmission vector.